NATO and Ukraine Emergency Talks Result in Default to Previous Stance, Escalations Ease for Now, Russian Counterstrike Still Looms
FOLLOW-UP ANALYSIS: NATO and Ukraine convened emergency talks today resulting in a temporary easing of escalations and defaulting to its previous position. A Russian counterstrike still looms.
As reported on Saturday and previewed in this morning’s analysis, NATO and Ukraine convened emergency talks today and they have resulted in a temporary easing of escalations and the decision to default to a previous position rooted in the concept of perpetual war as a hegemonic, diplomatic and economic driver: Nothing will “deter NATO allies from supporting Ukraine” [France 24].
This is a follow-up to today’s morning analysis: All Eyes on NATO/Ukraine Emergency Talks as Russia Prepares for Counterattack to US ATACMS Strike.
It is the 231st article in the series War, Famine & Disease.
France 24 reports,
Ambassadors from Ukraine and NATO’s 32 members meet Tuesday in Brussels following Russia’s strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a new hypersonic missile. Russian President Putin said the new missile strike responded to Ukraine’s use of US and UK weapons and warned that Moscow may target military facilities in states supporting Ukraine.
But diplomats and officials at NATO have played down expectations for any major results from the consultations on Tuesday afternoon at the alliance’s Brussels headquarters.
The most that is expected is a reiteration of NATO’s earlier insistence that Moscow’s deployment of the new weaponry will not “deter NATO allies from supporting Ukraine”.
A senior NATO advisor gave an indication to PROJECT FORWARD: “”I cannot imagine that it is in the interest of the United States to allow Putin to come out of those possible negotiations as a winner,” senior NATO commander Rob Bauer said Monday.”
A NATO press release indicates,
Ambassadors met in the NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) today (26 November 2024) to discuss the security situation in Ukraine following Russia’s launch of an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) last week. Senior Ukrainian military officials briefed the Council via video link.
During the meeting, NATO Allies reaffirmed their support for Ukraine.
[…]
As earlier noted by the NATO Spokesperson, Farah Dakhlallah, “deploying this capability will neither change the course of the conflict nor deter NATO Allies from supporting Ukraine.”
ABOUT THE NATO-UKRAINE COUNCIL
NATO states that, “The NATO-Ukraine Council provides a forum for consultation between Allies and Ukraine on security issues of common concern, including Russia’s war of aggression. The meeting was chaired by NATO’s acting Deputy Secretary General, Boris Ruge. The next meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council is due to take place during the meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers that will be held on 3-4 December.”
Finer details can be learned here: Summary of the NATO-Ukraine Innovation Cooperation Roadmap.
ANALYSIS
Several factors bear down to project forward:
NATO clearly envisions a protracted conflict even after Trump’s inauguration assuming he can last that long and it appears determined to ensure that outcome.
NATO commander Rob Bauer has already implicitly indicated they won’t permit Putin to win as indicated above.
Russia is already in the advance stages of preparing its counterstrike against the ATACMS strike it incurred on Sunday. It still looms: All Eyes on NATO/Ukraine Emergency Talks as Russia Prepares for Counterattack to US ATACMS Strike.
Any easing in escalations is only briefly temporary as NATO/Ukraine will be compelled to reevaluate the outcome of its emergency talks today, which defaulted to its previous stance and would likely result in another long-range NATO/UKR strike according to the principle of war reciprocity.
The timing of the emergency talks and the outcome[s] of a default position enable the aggressors [NATO, et al.] to take the high road in advance of a Russian counterstrike they know is coming. This will enable NATO to assign attribution for its certain retaliatory strike to Russia’s counterstrike to Russia and Putin. The timing and the existing chronology are important when considering this [reviewed again this morning.]
Through the lens of Putin, he knows NATO will carry-out retaliatory strikes for his forthcoming counterstrike and this bears down on mitigating the amount of damage Russia would incur. This entails eliminating tactically plausible weapons platforms [missiles] in appropriate locations and this bears down on the Poland/NATO considerations lined-out in the previous analysis: Putin Validates War Analysis: The world stands on the transition line between full scale regional war and full scale global war. IF PUTIN STRIKES NATO SITES IN POLAND in his forthcoming counterstrike, it immediately expands the regional territory [war theater] of a full scale regional war in ways to move us off the transition line and closer to or directly in a formal global war.
The other concern is one that has been constructed and framed over the past couple of years and the analysis identified the pretext for it in September 2022. It’s represented by the application of the principle of war reciprocity to a nuclear red line ultimatum drawn by Joe Biden in September 2022. That is an overlay to an important position in the analysis. That position is NATO’s developing nuclear [and/or chemical] entrapment operation that is being deployed to bait Putin and Russia into crossing Biden’s ultimatum red line. If Putin were to take the bait, it would permit NATO to do what it has always coveted: fire its missiles directly at Russia without the messiness and expense of a proxy state like Ukraine. You would hear the narrative delivered as justification for an escalated retaliatory NATO strike explained as Putin “changed the face of war.” That messaging is determined by the Biden nuclear [and/or chemical] red line pretext delivered in September 2022. Explained: WORLD WAR III: US Officials Discuss Nuclear Armament for Ukraine as Russian Deterrence Strategy.
We remain straddling the transition line between full scale regional war and global war, limited or full scale.
As we straddle that line, one leg is fully across on the side of global war as the opposite foot toes the boundary of full scale regional war.
With a temporary easing of escalations from NATO to assume a temporary and fraudulent high road, Russia’s counterstrike to the ATACMS strike overnight on Sunday still looms.
Therefore, the next marker to project forward will be the NATO/Ukraine response to Russia’s coming counterstrike if and when it happens.
Stay tuned for further analysis currently being published every 24 hours in the late morning or after.
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Are Britain and the US trying to Europe in a war, or are they trying to blow up the world. Could this be the DS saying, "if we can't control the world and everyone in it, we'll blow it up."
Nothing makes sense. Not the election, not the silence of the DS, not the continued support of Ukraine, and not Ukraine's strikes against Russia. Is this to make us sit back and wait for Trump to be sworn in and to forget how dangerous the times are? Or, is it to make us relax and think that they will allow Trump to serve another four years and take down the DS during that time? In the meantime, they will blow up the world with nuclear bombs. Just saying.
Hey Europe...Britain and the US are trying to get you in a war.